Thursday, December 12, 2019

New NAFTA is going to be horrendous

This is from a very important article by Micahel Arria at IN THESE TIMES:

On Tuesday morning, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that Democrats had reached a deal with the Trump administration to advance the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), also referred to as “NAFTA 2.0.” In explaining the deal, she said: "There is no question of course that this trade agreement is much better than NAFTA."
Progressives have criticized Pelosi for potentially handing President Trump a political victory during both an impeachment process and an approaching election. After all, Trump ran on the promise that he would renegotiate NAFTA and now it seems that, with help from the Democrats, he will. That could mean more GOP votes in swing states that have been wracked by the damage of the original NAFTA deal. “It does appear that if Trump gets a win on this new NAFTA, his chances of reelection go up considerable,” wrote The Intercept’s Ryan Grim. “He can say he delivered on his promises, and that Democrats don’t really think he’s that corrupt after all, or they wouldn’t have delivered him such a major victory.”
For her part, Pelosi appears to believe that the deal might ultimately be beneficial for moderate Democrats at election time, and many House Democrats certainly seem happy with the final version of the agreement. “You know what I’ve said: These have been the fights,” Pelosi reportedly told party members during a caucus meeting after the agreement was secured. “And we stayed on this, and we ate their lunch.”
The political implications of USMCA remain to be seen and, since the final text of the agreement hasn’t yet been released, it’s hard to assess its full impact. But we already have a pretty good idea of what kind of relief it will supply for workers: not much. A report by economists Thea M. Lee and Robert E. Scott at the Economic Policy Institute concedes that USMCA is a big improvement from the 2017 version, but concludes that it ultimately adds up to “Band-Aids on a fundamentally flawed agreement and process.”
Using statistics from the U.S. International Trade Commission, Lee and Scott point out that, at best, the deal will only create about 51,000 jobs over the next six years and could raise the GDP by a few tenths of a percentage point. These potential jobs would come in farming, manufacturing and mining. The report cites an International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper which predicts nothing but bad news for the (already beleaguered) auto-industry. That same paper concludes that, “At the aggregate level, effects of the USMCA are relatively small...effects of the USMCA on real GDP are negligible.”

NAFTA was hideous.  New NAFTA is just as bad.  I really feel there should be a lot more coverage of this issue.  I'm sure there will be once it goes into effect.  For now, this is from Food & Water Watch:


USMCA is a New NAFTA and an Assault on Food, Air, and Water



We all need safe food and clean water.

Exterior of the White House in Washington, DC.
12.11.19

In response, Food & Water Action Executive Director Wenonah Hauter said:

“Don’t let the Trump administration trick you. The USMCA is nothing more than a NAFTA 2.0 and it spells disaster for food safety, air and water quality, and climate change in America.
“The proposed agreement doesn’t even mention – let alone do anything to stop – the worsening effects of our climate crisis. In fact, it actually encourages the construction of more harmful pipelines and dirty energy exports that would further expand fracking in the United States and Mexico.
“It also drastically undercuts food safety protections with rollbacks on country-of-origin labeling requirements. At the same time, it hits consumers with a double whammy by simultaneously forcing Mexico to allow chemical giants like Monsanto and Dow to hide vital data about pesticide usage. 
“USMCA is not a trade deal, it is an attack on public health and the climate. Congress must reject USMCA or we’ll be looking at a future of irreversible environmental disaster and unsafe food, water, and air… with no end in sight.”





This is C.I.'s "Iraq snapshot" for Wednesday:

Wednesday, December 11, 2019.  No Christmas tree in Baghdad Plaza this year and much more.


Starting in the United States where the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination continues and War Hawk Joe Biden continues to stumble.  Ella Nilsen (VOX) reports:

Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign is confident it can do the improbable: win the Democratic nomination for president without winning Iowa and New Hampshire.
“We’ve long felt that one of our unique advantages is that we have multiple paths to the nomination, and I’m not sure anybody else can say that right now,” Biden’s deputy campaign manager Pete Kavanaugh told Vox.
The path rests on winning the Obama coalition of nonwhite voters; many older black voters in particular have so far signaled their loyalty to Biden. Though they’ve been campaigning and organizing in Iowa and New Hampshire, the former vice president’s campaign says faltering there wouldn’t be a death knell. Their paths hinge on strong showings in the more diverse early states of Nevada and South Carolina, and riding that energy into delegate-rich Super Tuesday on March 3. Pointing to the southern states of North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Virginia, Kavanaugh said, “Places like that we think we could have a really profound advantage.”
“We strongly believe — and have consistently said — that no single state is a must-win,” he added.

Political experts in the early states disagree, saying that taken together, Iowa and New Hampshire are indeed must-wins.

They are must win and we've talked about this (for weeks now).  If Joe loses Iowa, it's a hit and his support dips.  That's only more true if he were to lose Iowa and New Hampshire.  And when we talk about that, we're talking about the support from voters.

However, money, money, money . . .



Money, money, money...
Money makes the trees come down
It makes mountains into molehills
Big money kicks the wide wide world around.

-- "This Place," written by Joni Mitchell, first appears on her album SHINE


Money, money, money.  Joe's making an effort in Iowa and it's cost him -- financially.  If he loses Iowa watch some of his funding dry up.  If he loses Iowa and New Hampshire, even more dries up.  Can Joe's campaign stay afloat if he loses both?

"Joe Biden needs to grow up."  So argues John Krull (GOSHEN NEWS) about the 77-year-old temper tantrum throwing Joe:

The former vice president and current candidate for president indulged in a temper tantrum with an Iowa voter the other day. The voter said Biden and his son Hunter had been “selling access” to the White House when the younger Biden served on the board of Burisma Holdings, a Ukrainian energy company.
Joe Biden flared.
“You’re a damn liar, man,” he said to the 83-year-old Iowa farmer.
Worse, the former vice president continued to defend his snappish response to the man long after his anger should have cooled. He kept telling interviewers the man was lying and that he was entitled to unload on an ordinary citizen who had the temerity to question him.
In the first place, the farmer may not have had every fact straight, but it’s unlikely that he was lying. He is a Democrat, one who said afterward that he was going to vote for whoever the party’s nominee is — even if it’s Biden.
But that is beside the point.

Biden’s little fit of pique demonstrated that he doesn’t grasp that a lot of people — many of them Democrats and independents — have a problem with his son’s work with Burisma. The fact that he was paid $50,000 per month to do not much work raises questions. That the younger Biden had scant qualifications other than his last name to fill such a position only makes things worse.


Joe's got a lot of negatives.  One of them?  He's reminding people of other candidates who didn't end up president.  Tyler MacDonald (THE INQUISITR) reports:

Democratic presidential candidate and frontrunner Joe Biden recently released a campaign ad that attacks Donald Trump as “erratic” and “unstable,” painting the former vice president as someone offering the “strong,” “steady,” and “stable” leadership the United States needs. The ad was quickly derided by progressive commentator Kyle Kulinski, who suggested that it was following in the footsteps of Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 presidential bid against Trump.
“It’s like the Biden campaign studied Hillary’s failed campaign and said: ‘ok, lets try that again!’, it calls Trump ‘unstable’ and ‘erratic’, and Biden ‘experienced,'” he tweeted. “Hillary was experienced and Trump was erratic & unstable in 2016 and he won. ‘Trump bad’ is a losing strategy!”
Kulinski continued to blast the ad’s focus on attacking Trump, suggesting that it isn’t “creative, interesting or inspiring.”

Ava and I noted this with Tom Steyer's ads -- you need to tell the people what you will do.  Your obsession with Donald Trump just makes him stronger.  What are you going to do to make the lives of Americans better?  Instead, you make your ads all about Donald Trump, suggesting you're good at envy but not good at planning for the future.

Joe's being endorsed by Kate Miller.  Not the actress.  So who?  A little speck from the center-world.  Born in 1952, she is a bit young to be a Joe Biden supporter.  But her lifetime of nonsense makes her the perfect foil.  VOTE SMART notes of Kate, "Kate Miller refused to tell citizens where she stands on any of the issues addressed in the 2012 Political Courage Test, despite repeated requests from Vote Smart, national media, and prominent political leaders."


Meanwhile the Joe Clone, his mini-me, Tiny Pete continues to underwhelm despite the avalanche of easy press he's been receiving for two months now.  Rebecca Morin (USA TODAY) notes:

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg hasn't seen his recent surge in early-state polls translate to national polls. He is at 9% in Tuesday's Quinnipiac Poll, but was in second place at 16% in last month's poll.


Tiny Pete and War Hawk Joe are two birds of a feather.  Thankfully, there are alternatives.  Sarah Lazare (IN THESE TIMES) reports:

Update:
Following publication of this piece, a Senate spokesperson for Elizabeth Warren contacted In These Times with the following comment: “I just saw your piece on the NDAA. She does not support this level of defense funding and does not plan to vote in favor of the NDAA.”
Warren then tweeted the following remarks: “The Pentagon’s budget has been too large for too long. I cannot support a defense bill that’s a $738 billion Christmas present to giant defense contractors & undermines our values and security.”
Earlier:
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is the only 2020 presidential hopeful who has pledged to vote against—and loudly denounced—the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for 2020, a $738 billion military spending bill that would mark a $22 billion increase over last year. The other frontrunner in the Senate, Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee, which is tasked with negotiating the contents of the bill, but has so far remained silent on how she will vote. None of the other Democratic presidential candidates in Congress—Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), Sen. Michael Bennet (Colo.) and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii)—have indicated their voting intention, either.

The initial House version of the NDAA included certain restrictions on how military spending could be used, including measures prohibiting the allocation of funds to an unauthorized war with Iran and stopping U.S. military support for the war on Yemen. But a new compromise bill, released Monday, strips these out. While the compromise offers some concessions, such as paid parental leave for some federal workers, peace campaigners characterize it as a win for the Right. The House and Senate are expected to vote as soon as this week on the bill, which includes authorization for Trump’s proposed “space force” as part of the compromise.



On Bernie Sanders, Beatrice Adler-Bolton (JACOBIN) offers:

To live in the United States as a person with disabilities is to encounter daily acts of abuse and oppression. Working disabled people can legally be paid less than $1 an hour under federal law, an appalling exemption to already inadequate minimum-wage standards. Disabled people on Social Security Income (SSI) must report any income, including gifts, every month to maintain meager amounts of coverage, and can lose their benefits by marrying. We are more likely to be poor, and more likely to become homeless — more than 40 percent of homeless people are disabled.
For the first time in awhile, several of the candidates in the Democratic presidential primary have outlined proposals to address this. Last month, Julián Castro made a big splash by releasing a platform that, among other things, would scrap discriminatory wage laws and allow disabled SSI recipients to wed without penalty. Even Pete Buttigieg, in a long document brimming with 1990s-style Clintonite rhetoric, has laid out an agenda to take the disabled community on a glide path to equality.
But there’s only one candidate with a comprehensive set of policies that would directly enhance the lives of disabled people in the United States: Senator Bernie Sanders.
Disability rights issues are woven directly into the proposals of almost every single policy document the campaign has released to date. The Sanders campaign clearly understands that disability is not simply a set of special interests to be siloed off, but a common aspect of everyday life affecting a key group of people that US policy routinely degrades, diminishes, and often oppresses.

Housing is a disability issue. Labor is a disability issue. Health care is a disability issue. Disabled people are on the front lines of climate change. And the agenda that Sanders is advancing not only recognizes that all of these issues greatly affect disabled people; it recognizes that no program or policy is good enough if it does not work for the most marginalized among us — the disabled very much included.

Read on for specifics (and note these are the same issues that Hilda was raising in last week and this week's HILDA'S MIX).

Turning to Iraq, Samya Kulab (AP) reports:

The Christmas tree in the middle of a central Baghdad plaza occupied by anti-government protesters is bare, save for portraits of those killed under fire from security forces. A tribute, the demonstrators explained, to a recent decision by Iraq’s Christians to call off seasonal festivities to honor the losses.
Leaders of Iraq’s Christians unanimously cancelled Christmas-related celebrations in solidarity with the protest movement — but the aims of their stance go deeper than tinsel and fairy lights. Slogans of a united Iraq free of sectarianism resonate deeply within the community, which since the 2003 fall of Saddam Hussein has fearfully observed its diminishing influence amid growing Shiite-dominated politics shaping state affairs. The Christians have also left Iraq in huge numbers over the years, after being targeted by militant Sunni groups such as al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.


War Hawk Joe has still not been asked about the months of turmoil in Iraq by the press covering his campaign.  Bonnie Kristian (REASON) points out:

After months of deadly, large-scale grassroots protests demanding reform in Baghdad, Iraqi, Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi announced his intent to resign and the country's parliament approved his resignation. In the protests, about 400 demonstrators, mostly young and unarmed, have been killed by Iraqi security forces; another 8,000 have been injured; and about a dozen security forces have also died in clashes with a violent minority of protesters. Today, it is unsettled who will become the new head of government.
It is unlikely to be a question easily resolved. The demonstrators' complaints are extensive, including state corruption and incompetence, unemployment and economic stagnation, and a perception of foreign influence over domestic politics, notably from Iran. More important than these specific issues, however, is the protesters' overarching critique of the governance structure in Baghdad—a structure shaped by Washington's nation-building efforts after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. That dissatisfaction makes this political unrest a fresh and urgent impetus to end American military intervention in Iraq once and for all.
U.S. exit could signal a move toward meaningful reforms the Iraqi people want. It would also be a boon for the American people, bringing closure to a misguided military intervention that has proven costly and counterproductive to U.S. security.
It is commonplace in U.S. politics to hear of the "end" of the Iraq War under former President Obama, but it is an odd end to a war which leaves thousands of occupying troops in place. The Trump administration began this year with more than 5,000 boots on the ground in Iraq, and, since then, added to their number after reshuffling U.S. forces in Syria. It has been nearly three years since Baghdad declared victory over the Islamic State—whose rise occasioned a growing U.S. footprint in Iraq beginning in 2014. In those years, Washington has ignored repeated Iraqi calls for withdrawal of all foreign militaries, as well as recent insistence from Baghdad that American forces relocated from Syria cannot stay.


Meanwhile Reporters Without Borders notes:

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) is alarmed by the growing dangers for journalists in Iraq, where the latest fatal victim was Ahmad Muhanna, a photographer who was shot in the back by unidentified gunmen while covering protests in Baghdad’s Al-Khilani Square on 6 December.



Muhanna was the third journalist to be murdered since a major wave of anti-government protests began in Iraq on 1 October. His death triggered an outcry on social networks.

The first journalist to be killed was Hisham Fares Al-Aadhami, a freelance photographer who was fatally shot in the chest by an irregular militia member while covering the protests in Al-Khilani Square on 4 October

The other fatal victim was Amjed Al-Dahamat, a writer and citizen-journalist who, according to the information obtained by RSF, was shot by unidentified gunmen near his home in the southeastern province of Maysan on 7 November.

“Rarely have Iraqi journalists been so exposed to danger and so vulnerable,” said Sabrina Bennoui, the head of RSF’s Middle East desk. “It is unacceptable that reporters in the field should be killed simply for having a camera or video camera. The Iraqi authorities must thoroughly investigate these clearly deliberate murders in order to identify those responsible.”

On the same day that Muhanna was murdered, another freelance photographer, Zaid Al-Khafaji, was kidnapped from his home on his return from covering the protests in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square. CCTV camera footage show men entering his home prior to his disappearance.

He was the second journalist to be abducted in recent weeks. The first was Muhammad Al-Shamari, a member of the Iraqi Observatory for Press Freedoms, who was kidnapped on 17 November and was released the next day.

Iraq is ranked 156th out of 180 countries in RSF’s 2019 World Press Freedom Index.


The following sites updated: